EURUSD is feeling a bit toppish around this 1.3790-00.
Since a profit is a profit and we had quite a nice run during this month,
I will call it a day and take profit on my longs @ 1.3792.
I continue to think that we will should have strong supports for tonight around 1.3735-55.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
FX Update 10/27/2010
Good afternoon, late comments since market was uninspiring with month end flows.
Looking at price action and technicals, I think EURUSD might base here.
There s been some huge selling and it feels over to me for the mom.
I just tried the long side @ 1.3765, initially having strong support points around 1.3735-55. Ideal target would be around today's highs or better.
I will be away until Monday.
Wish you good luck trading.
Looking at price action and technicals, I think EURUSD might base here.
There s been some huge selling and it feels over to me for the mom.
I just tried the long side @ 1.3765, initially having strong support points around 1.3735-55. Ideal target would be around today's highs or better.
I will be away until Monday.
Wish you good luck trading.
FX Comments 10/27/2010
Good morning,
The "buying the dip strategy" in the EUR has not been working the last couple of days and as a result I have been taken out of my long position during New York hours. As per my comments, I felt it was trading heavily, but I was stubborn to think that shadow buying by Reserve Managers would be sufficient enough to hold it above the @1.3840-50 support.
During Asian hours, Australia reported slightly weaker that expected economic figures and the currency sold off (analysts will certainly now tell you that they don't expect a hike by the RBA next week..). Interestingly enough, USDJPY also went up, going further away of the 80.00 big figure so widely publicized for its options barriers. This upmove might certainly be more attributed to the fall in the 10 Y futures, since their correlation is enormous.
By the end of the week, we have month end that might generate some volatility and distortions until the fixings and next week, we are all waiting for the outcome of the (in)famous FOMC meeting and results of US Senate elections. It will be key to the next directions markets will take.
In the meantime, let's see what the day brings us.
The "buying the dip strategy" in the EUR has not been working the last couple of days and as a result I have been taken out of my long position during New York hours. As per my comments, I felt it was trading heavily, but I was stubborn to think that shadow buying by Reserve Managers would be sufficient enough to hold it above the @1.3840-50 support.
During Asian hours, Australia reported slightly weaker that expected economic figures and the currency sold off (analysts will certainly now tell you that they don't expect a hike by the RBA next week..). Interestingly enough, USDJPY also went up, going further away of the 80.00 big figure so widely publicized for its options barriers. This upmove might certainly be more attributed to the fall in the 10 Y futures, since their correlation is enormous.
By the end of the week, we have month end that might generate some volatility and distortions until the fixings and next week, we are all waiting for the outcome of the (in)famous FOMC meeting and results of US Senate elections. It will be key to the next directions markets will take.
In the meantime, let's see what the day brings us.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
FX Update 10/26/2010
We just tested 1.3840 level around the european fixing time.
If I am correct, we might be on for a correction now that a lot of long seems to have been cleared out.
I just went long @ 1.3867..I have a 1.3950 target and a firm 1.3830 stop loss
Have a good evening,
If I am correct, we might be on for a correction now that a lot of long seems to have been cleared out.
I just went long @ 1.3867..I have a 1.3950 target and a firm 1.3830 stop loss
Have a good evening,
FX Update 10/26/2010
Sorry for this kind of useless trading, but this is going nowhere.
USD is back on the offered camp vs GBP and AUD, following index futures but not vs EUR.
On this basis, I just squared out my position at same rate of entry..
1.3840-50 is definitely the level to watch on the downside for further acceleration..
USD is back on the offered camp vs GBP and AUD, following index futures but not vs EUR.
On this basis, I just squared out my position at same rate of entry..
1.3840-50 is definitely the level to watch on the downside for further acceleration..
FX Update 10/26/2010
First wave of stop losses hunting attained a low of 1.3879 for the time being.
I just went long @ 1.3890 as I think that we should hold for the moment to retrace up to 1.3950-60.
I will consider to be wrong on a clear break of 1.3840-50
Let's see
I just went long @ 1.3890 as I think that we should hold for the moment to retrace up to 1.3950-60.
I will consider to be wrong on a clear break of 1.3840-50
Let's see
FX Comments 10/26/2010
Good afternoon,
Sorry for the delay, but I didn't have many thoughts to share this morning..
Except for GBP which was supported early this morning by Reserve Managers, followed by strong UK GDP figures and finally S&P's revision to a stable outlook and affirmation of UK's AAA rating, the rest of the price action in G10 was rather dull.
EURUSD seems stuck in a range with a slight bearish tone. It s still being supported by Asian buyers on the dip, but upside progress seem, for the moment at least, quite limited.
At the moment the strong supports are around 1.3900 followed by friday's lows around 1.3860, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some stop loss hunting on the break of those levels.
Resistances are around 1.3985-95 and 1.4015. For today. overall I would be more enclined to sell rallies.
Let's see how it develops.
Sorry for the delay, but I didn't have many thoughts to share this morning..
Except for GBP which was supported early this morning by Reserve Managers, followed by strong UK GDP figures and finally S&P's revision to a stable outlook and affirmation of UK's AAA rating, the rest of the price action in G10 was rather dull.
EURUSD seems stuck in a range with a slight bearish tone. It s still being supported by Asian buyers on the dip, but upside progress seem, for the moment at least, quite limited.
At the moment the strong supports are around 1.3900 followed by friday's lows around 1.3860, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some stop loss hunting on the break of those levels.
Resistances are around 1.3985-95 and 1.4015. For today. overall I would be more enclined to sell rallies.
Let's see how it develops.
Monday, October 25, 2010
FX Update 10/25/2010
I am less comfortable with the upside at this stage. EUR doesn't seem to want to progress,
so I rather get out with a small loss for the moment.
I just sold my remaining position at 1.4033.
All in all, I take 1.small 16.5 point loss and will reassess later.
FX Update 10/25/2010
Tricky price action,
EURUSD went down to 1.4002 and I was thus stopped on 1/2 unit @ 1.4014.
Interesting to note that AUD keeping a bid tone trading @ 0.9945..
I think that 1.3980-90 has to hold if we are looking for a test higher, thus SL stays @ 1.3970 for the remaining position.
EURUSD went down to 1.4002 and I was thus stopped on 1/2 unit @ 1.4014.
Interesting to note that AUD keeping a bid tone trading @ 0.9945..
I think that 1.3980-90 has to hold if we are looking for a test higher, thus SL stays @ 1.3970 for the remaining position.
FX Update 10/25/2010
Since IMF member remarks that "EUR is close to what they call overvalued",
EUR upmove has been stalling.
I will thus play it differently putting the SL @1.4015 for 1/2 unit and @ 1.3970 for the other 1/2
For the moment I do not change the take profit levels
EUR upmove has been stalling.
I will thus play it differently putting the SL @1.4015 for 1/2 unit and @ 1.3970 for the other 1/2
For the moment I do not change the take profit levels
FX Update 10/25/2010
I am raising the Stop to 1.4000 and adjusting take profits for 1/2 unit @ 1.4110 and the other 1/2 unit @ 1.4160.
I am may be far too optimistic but I will fine tune if we go there.
Let's see,
I am may be far too optimistic but I will fine tune if we go there.
Let's see,
FX Update 10/25/2010
Following my morning comments, I m long 1/2 a unit @1.4030, looking at the price action since we touched 1.4019 makes me believe that we should go higher to the targets of 1.4110 ish.
I thus just bought the remaining 1/2 @ 1.4050 looking for 1.4110 ish
Stop is now raised on the full position @ 1.3970
I thus just bought the remaining 1/2 @ 1.4050 looking for 1.4110 ish
Stop is now raised on the full position @ 1.3970
FX Comments 10/25/2010
Good morning,
The USD trades weaker post G20 meeting, mainly vs EUR, AUD and JPY.
What I am reading from various commentators from Banks and the financial press is that despite the fact that the G20 agreed to agree on specific limits to keep current account imbalances at sustainable levels, to refrain from competitive devaluations, to remain vigilant on disorderly movements in exchange rates while aiming at reducing risk of excessive volatility in capital flows, there seems to be no willingness to engage in currency coordinated interventions.
It seems the market has been much more influenced by strong Australian figures pointing to higher inflation, and some research that I read from Goldman's Hatzius regarding Fed policy:
-Fed almost certain to announce easing Nov. 2-3
-probability of QE is extremely high starting with 500 bio, going up to 2 trillion
-Taylor rule shows Fed might need up to 4 trillion
With those numbers, no doubt it gives food for thoughts..
We have Chairman Bernanke speaking today at 2.30 pm, it will be certainly interesting to hear what he will tell us. On sterling, Mervin King is due to speak tonight at 21.00 pm, it will certainly keep the pound under pressure until then (in the crosses at least).
Trading wise, I have some supports on EURUSD around 1.4025-30, followed by 1.3970-90.
Nice resistances up 1.4105-15, then 1.4170-80.
Let's see if the weak USD mood continues, if so I will try to buy on the supports I just mentioned (1/2 a unit on the 1st support and 1/2 a unit on the 2nd support). Stop loss should be placed below 1.3930, to be adjusted as the day goes by.
Good trading,
The USD trades weaker post G20 meeting, mainly vs EUR, AUD and JPY.
What I am reading from various commentators from Banks and the financial press is that despite the fact that the G20 agreed to agree on specific limits to keep current account imbalances at sustainable levels, to refrain from competitive devaluations, to remain vigilant on disorderly movements in exchange rates while aiming at reducing risk of excessive volatility in capital flows, there seems to be no willingness to engage in currency coordinated interventions.
It seems the market has been much more influenced by strong Australian figures pointing to higher inflation, and some research that I read from Goldman's Hatzius regarding Fed policy:
-Fed almost certain to announce easing Nov. 2-3
-probability of QE is extremely high starting with 500 bio, going up to 2 trillion
-Taylor rule shows Fed might need up to 4 trillion
With those numbers, no doubt it gives food for thoughts..
We have Chairman Bernanke speaking today at 2.30 pm, it will be certainly interesting to hear what he will tell us. On sterling, Mervin King is due to speak tonight at 21.00 pm, it will certainly keep the pound under pressure until then (in the crosses at least).
Trading wise, I have some supports on EURUSD around 1.4025-30, followed by 1.3970-90.
Nice resistances up 1.4105-15, then 1.4170-80.
Let's see if the weak USD mood continues, if so I will try to buy on the supports I just mentioned (1/2 a unit on the 1st support and 1/2 a unit on the 2nd support). Stop loss should be placed below 1.3930, to be adjusted as the day goes by.
Good trading,
Sunday, October 24, 2010
G20 comments
Good morning,
Here is the Bloomberg link to conclusions on the G 20 meeting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-23/g-20-pledge-to-avoid-competitive-devaluations-endorse-market-driven-rates.html
Here is a list of the most interesting headlines I've read from the different participants:
*TRICHET SAYS IMPRESSED GEITHNER SUPPORTS STRONG DOLLAR
*TRICHET: SOME IN G-20 CONCERNED ABOUT QUANTITATIVE EASING
*TRICHET ENDORSES G-20 PLAN TO BE VIGILANT ON EXCESS FX MOVES
*GEITHNER SAYS U.S. HAS SPECIAL RESPONSIBILITY TO SUPPORT DOLLAR
*GEITHNER SAYS REAFFIRMS POLICY TO SUPPORT STRONG DOLLAR
*NODA SAYS G-20 STATEMENT ON CURRENCIES MORE ACTIVE THAN BEFORE
*NODA: G20 STATEMENT ON RESERVE CURRENCIES MEAN U.S., JAPAN, EU
*YOON SAYS G-20 WILL RESPECT MARKET MORE FOR EXCHANGE RATES
*S. KOREA'S YOON SAYS G-20 AGREEMENT WILL END CURRENCY DISPUTES
*G-20 SAYS IT WILL PURSUE MORE MARKET-DETERMINED CURRENCY POLICY
*G-20 PLEDGES TO AVOID COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS OF CURRENCIES
The most pertinent seems to be those of Mr Trichet.
It will be interesting to see how the market will interpret all this on the opening later and in the next days to come.
Have a good day,
Here is the Bloomberg link to conclusions on the G 20 meeting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-23/g-20-pledge-to-avoid-competitive-devaluations-endorse-market-driven-rates.html
Here is a list of the most interesting headlines I've read from the different participants:
*TRICHET SAYS IMPRESSED GEITHNER SUPPORTS STRONG DOLLAR
*TRICHET: SOME IN G-20 CONCERNED ABOUT QUANTITATIVE EASING
*TRICHET ENDORSES G-20 PLAN TO BE VIGILANT ON EXCESS FX MOVES
*GEITHNER SAYS U.S. HAS SPECIAL RESPONSIBILITY TO SUPPORT DOLLAR
*GEITHNER SAYS REAFFIRMS POLICY TO SUPPORT STRONG DOLLAR
*NODA SAYS G-20 STATEMENT ON CURRENCIES MORE ACTIVE THAN BEFORE
*NODA: G20 STATEMENT ON RESERVE CURRENCIES MEAN U.S., JAPAN, EU
*YOON SAYS G-20 WILL RESPECT MARKET MORE FOR EXCHANGE RATES
*S. KOREA'S YOON SAYS G-20 AGREEMENT WILL END CURRENCY DISPUTES
*G-20 SAYS IT WILL PURSUE MORE MARKET-DETERMINED CURRENCY POLICY
*G-20 PLEDGES TO AVOID COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS OF CURRENCIES
The most pertinent seems to be those of Mr Trichet.
It will be interesting to see how the market will interpret all this on the opening later and in the next days to come.
Have a good day,
Friday, October 22, 2010
FX Update 10/22/2010
It seems that I unfortunately missed the sell opportunity..we are down now around 1.3925-30 as I write.
Europe is gonna close in 2 hours and liquidity will gradually dry.
I am gonna take out my orders and pass the weekend without positions since we might have different outcomes in case that something of note comes out of the G20.
We finish the week on a nice positive note based on the different ideas I'e been sharing with you.
Have a nice weekend
Europe is gonna close in 2 hours and liquidity will gradually dry.
I am gonna take out my orders and pass the weekend without positions since we might have different outcomes in case that something of note comes out of the G20.
We finish the week on a nice positive note based on the different ideas I'e been sharing with you.
Have a nice weekend
FX Update 10/22/2010
Good afternoon, we have had some decent volatility this morning on position adjustments between
1.3858 and 1.3973.
Following my morning comments of fading the extremes, I would be inclined to sell EURUSD
@ 1.3965-70 for a target of 1.3880, even 1.3825-30. The next resistance on the upside lies @ 1.4015-25.
Based on this I will try the short side with a SL above 1.4050 (to be fine tuned)
1.3858 and 1.3973.
Following my morning comments of fading the extremes, I would be inclined to sell EURUSD
@ 1.3965-70 for a target of 1.3880, even 1.3825-30. The next resistance on the upside lies @ 1.4015-25.
Based on this I will try the short side with a SL above 1.4050 (to be fine tuned)
FX Comment 10/22/2010
Good morning,
Sorry for the late comment, but my ideas are quite split on what's going to happen next.
The price action as of my latest comment was quite messy as I said and it didn't really fell like we
were going to break much higher on the upside. Since then we have seen a nice retreat of EURUSD to the downside, with no massive news of importance that would justify such a move.
We have the G20 communique scheduled to be released tomorrow morning and FED FOMC statement on QE2 to be released next wednesday. These two events will generate a lot of volatility not only by their outcome past-comments, but also before since we will assist to a lot of position adjustments due to risk reduction.
I am hearing that smart money (ie Reserve Managers like China and Korea) buying the dip in EURUSD but at mom it trades quite weak.
Overall I would be tempted to fade the extremes, since we will only know the first important of the outcomes tomorrow. My first levels of importance on the downside are 1.3860-70 that we held 1/2 hour ago and 1.3825-30. On the topside 1.3950 ish.
I ll let you if I have a strong idea worth trading later on as the day evolves.
Good trading
Sorry for the late comment, but my ideas are quite split on what's going to happen next.
The price action as of my latest comment was quite messy as I said and it didn't really fell like we
were going to break much higher on the upside. Since then we have seen a nice retreat of EURUSD to the downside, with no massive news of importance that would justify such a move.
We have the G20 communique scheduled to be released tomorrow morning and FED FOMC statement on QE2 to be released next wednesday. These two events will generate a lot of volatility not only by their outcome past-comments, but also before since we will assist to a lot of position adjustments due to risk reduction.
I am hearing that smart money (ie Reserve Managers like China and Korea) buying the dip in EURUSD but at mom it trades quite weak.
Overall I would be tempted to fade the extremes, since we will only know the first important of the outcomes tomorrow. My first levels of importance on the downside are 1.3860-70 that we held 1/2 hour ago and 1.3825-30. On the topside 1.3950 ish.
I ll let you if I have a strong idea worth trading later on as the day evolves.
Good trading
Thursday, October 21, 2010
FX Update 10/21/2010
It feels messy. We have seen 1.4039 high for the moment.
I finally sold the full position @ 1.4022 average.We ll reintitiate a position when it becomes interesing
in terms of risk reward.
I finally sold the full position @ 1.4022 average.We ll reintitiate a position when it becomes interesing
in terms of risk reward.
FX Update 10/21/2010
We can hike the SL to 1.3960, thus risking 10 pips on the trade.
I suggest to modify the take profit to 1/2 a unit @ 1.4030 and see if it breaks if we can see new highs for today.
I will update you on the spot.
I suggest to modify the take profit to 1/2 a unit @ 1.4030 and see if it breaks if we can see new highs for today.
I will update you on the spot.
FX Update 10/21/2010
Tricky level..EURUSD trades softer form earlier this morning..
I have a few light supports in this area..I justo bought a unit of EURUSD @1.3970
risking 1.3930 to retest 1.4030.
I m not hugely convinced, but if the trend is there I think it s a decent level to try the long side
Let's see
I have a few light supports in this area..I justo bought a unit of EURUSD @1.3970
risking 1.3930 to retest 1.4030.
I m not hugely convinced, but if the trend is there I think it s a decent level to try the long side
Let's see
FX Update 10/21/2010
Ok folks,
We just touched 1.4045, which to me is a very strong level.
I am out of the moment from my longs of 1.3940 since we touched 1.4030 my initial target.
I will reassess in a moment if we should continue to try to buy dips or if we should envisage going short again.
We just touched 1.4045, which to me is a very strong level.
I am out of the moment from my longs of 1.3940 since we touched 1.4030 my initial target.
I will reassess in a moment if we should continue to try to buy dips or if we should envisage going short again.
FX Update 10/21/2010
Wow..that was a quick and strong reversal! Apparently this spike up to 1.3980 was attributed to Asian Reserve Managers again and sincerely, looking at the way it traded I think it is correct.
Having a little bit more time now, the USD rise overnight was attributed to Geitner's comments in the WSJ
"he suggested that he sees no need for the dollar to sink further against the euro and the yen, saying these major currencies are "roughly in alignment" now".
What to expect now? It seems more to me that the market will try the upside, since it seems the weak side at the moment.
For the braves, I would try to buy EURUSD @ 1.3935-55 target 1.4030 with a SL below 1.3890.
Again, flexibility is very important.
Good luck
Having a little bit more time now, the USD rise overnight was attributed to Geitner's comments in the WSJ
"he suggested that he sees no need for the dollar to sink further against the euro and the yen, saying these major currencies are "roughly in alignment" now".
What to expect now? It seems more to me that the market will try the upside, since it seems the weak side at the moment.
For the braves, I would try to buy EURUSD @ 1.3935-55 target 1.4030 with a SL below 1.3890.
Again, flexibility is very important.
Good luck
FX Comments 10/21/2010
Good morning,
We finally had a correction down to 1.3872.
Market picture is unclear and we are back to 1.3900 again.
Looking at technicals we are 50/50 of testing around 1.4000-30 or 1.3780-1.3800.
On this basis, I just covered my EURUSD shorts at 1.3910 for a little profit and will wait for better levels
to reenter a position.
We finally had a correction down to 1.3872.
Market picture is unclear and we are back to 1.3900 again.
Looking at technicals we are 50/50 of testing around 1.4000-30 or 1.3780-1.3800.
On this basis, I just covered my EURUSD shorts at 1.3910 for a little profit and will wait for better levels
to reenter a position.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
FX Update 10/20/2010
This correction is slightly stronger than I expected for the moment.
We have surpassed the 1st strong resistance lying @1.3920-30 very easily
and went up to 1.3991 for the time being.
Two days ago we did a high @ 1.4005 and went straight down to 1.3700.
What has really changed since? Rumors by a US think tank of 500 bio QE extension by the US in the next 3-6 months..
So what? This is what was priced yesterday as well since the "experts" were already talking about
100 bio liquidity/month. If I am correct we wont know the real number before next Fed meeting
on Nov 3rd so we can expect lot of volatility until then with many rumors about that bloody QE 2.0
again..
Chinese authorities have hiked their rates yeterday to cool off some domestic and international pressures
and today it seems like all markets have forgotten about it..how silly?
You can soon expect the commentators to talk about it again when and if EURUSD goes back down to 1.3800 and below.
The bottomline is that I think we mightsee a runup to 1.4000-30 or so but I dont think it s gonna change the curreent trend. The only thing that would make me change of opinion is if something concrete came out, not just rumors..
Since I have to apply strict risk management rules I will stick with my levels and be flexible in case we breakup. It it feels like a false break, I will try again the downside.
We have Fed Beige Book in a couple hours which might trigger some more stoplosses, but hopefully my levels will be correct and we will see EURUSD lower later.
We have surpassed the 1st strong resistance lying @1.3920-30 very easily
and went up to 1.3991 for the time being.
Two days ago we did a high @ 1.4005 and went straight down to 1.3700.
What has really changed since? Rumors by a US think tank of 500 bio QE extension by the US in the next 3-6 months..
So what? This is what was priced yesterday as well since the "experts" were already talking about
100 bio liquidity/month. If I am correct we wont know the real number before next Fed meeting
on Nov 3rd so we can expect lot of volatility until then with many rumors about that bloody QE 2.0
again..
Chinese authorities have hiked their rates yeterday to cool off some domestic and international pressures
and today it seems like all markets have forgotten about it..how silly?
You can soon expect the commentators to talk about it again when and if EURUSD goes back down to 1.3800 and below.
The bottomline is that I think we mightsee a runup to 1.4000-30 or so but I dont think it s gonna change the curreent trend. The only thing that would make me change of opinion is if something concrete came out, not just rumors..
Since I have to apply strict risk management rules I will stick with my levels and be flexible in case we breakup. It it feels like a false break, I will try again the downside.
We have Fed Beige Book in a couple hours which might trigger some more stoplosses, but hopefully my levels will be correct and we will see EURUSD lower later.
FX Update 10/20/2010
Well, well, well..my feeling wasn't that wrong..
It sems to me that we have now an new opportunity devlopping around 1.3920-30 to go short.
Ideally I will be looking for an initial target of 1.3780 with a stop loss 1bove 1.3970 for short termers and above 1.4040 for longer termers
Let's see..
It sems to me that we have now an new opportunity devlopping around 1.3920-30 to go short.
Ideally I will be looking for an initial target of 1.3780 with a stop loss 1bove 1.3970 for short termers and above 1.4040 for longer termers
Let's see..
Update 10/20/2010
I might be wrong, but I don't like the price action here..EURUSD feels bid..I m gonna close momentarily the position @ 1.3848 and wait for a nicer picture..We could still see higher levels such as 1.3930 without the downtrend having changed. I will rather prefer to sell on the upmove that getting stopped.
I will update you asap
I will update you asap
FX Update 10/20/2010
Here we are..testing the strong resistance levels I was mentionning earlier 1.3873 just traded..it seems to me it is more stop loss related than anything, but you never know..
I am sticking with my original idea and stop loss.
Let's see how it develops
I am sticking with my original idea and stop loss.
Let's see how it develops
FX Comments 10/20/2010
Good morning,
I will stick to yesterday views that EURUSD should continue to trade lower down to 1.3650, even 1.3600.
The sharp retracement from 1.3700 lows overnight shoulld ideally cap here @1.3820, but we still risk
to trade slightly higher if some weak stop losses have to be triggered.
I would not like that EURUSD crosses back again over 1.3870-80 and will therefore put a Stop Loss
above this level on the position I just initiated here @ 1.3816.
Main risk event today might be Fed Beige Book tonight at 20.00.
Good Luck,
I will stick to yesterday views that EURUSD should continue to trade lower down to 1.3650, even 1.3600.
The sharp retracement from 1.3700 lows overnight shoulld ideally cap here @1.3820, but we still risk
to trade slightly higher if some weak stop losses have to be triggered.
I would not like that EURUSD crosses back again over 1.3870-80 and will therefore put a Stop Loss
above this level on the position I just initiated here @ 1.3816.
Main risk event today might be Fed Beige Book tonight at 20.00.
Good Luck,
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
FX Last Update for 10/19/2010
Ok I just covered last shorts @1.3774.. time to go home, plenty of opportunities tomorrow.
I still feel USD correction not over, but volatility should allow us to resell EURUSD at better levels again tomorrow.
Have a nice evening,
I still feel USD correction not over, but volatility should allow us to resell EURUSD at better levels again tomorrow.
Have a nice evening,
FX Update 10/19/2010
It seems to me that the EURUSD rebounds are getting really shallow.
We have printed a low @ 1.3767 and rebounded @1.3830.
It feels to me like we normally should not go back over 1.3850-75,
so I just went short 1 unit @ 1.3818 with an initial target of 1.3740
and then stronger one @ 1.3660.
Depending how deep your pockets a stop loss should be over 1.3890,.
You have seen the price action of last night..it s bloody volatile, so be flexible
and don't get too stubborn.
I am gonna trade this with flexibility, but it seems to me the USD correction is not over.
Good luck,
We have printed a low @ 1.3767 and rebounded @1.3830.
It feels to me like we normally should not go back over 1.3850-75,
so I just went short 1 unit @ 1.3818 with an initial target of 1.3740
and then stronger one @ 1.3660.
Depending how deep your pockets a stop loss should be over 1.3890,.
You have seen the price action of last night..it s bloody volatile, so be flexible
and don't get too stubborn.
I am gonna trade this with flexibility, but it seems to me the USD correction is not over.
Good luck,
FX Update 10/19/2010
Good afternooon,
I should have sticked to my initial idea of keeping shorts for 1.3800, since we jsut printed a low at 1.3793.
Instead of that I initially covered nicely this morning (a profit is a profit) and as the ZEW risk event seemed quite important I felt safer to be flat at that time. On such a strong print, I tought it would make sense to try the long side.
Luckily enough I used a tight risk management on this long position since it is actually not my preferred direction and got stopped at 1.3900 for a 35 pips loss.
Now what's the plan?
All the USD are on a strong foot GBPUSD; AUDUSD, USDCAD, etc..
Also since the China hike earlier all risk assets are lower, thus helping the USD as well and the S&P 500 Futures down 1%.
If the trend is right, we re gonna see more USD strenghth. I will look into my charts and check what are the best levels to reenter and short EURUSD position with a good risk/reward and revert to you asap..
Good Luck,
I should have sticked to my initial idea of keeping shorts for 1.3800, since we jsut printed a low at 1.3793.
Instead of that I initially covered nicely this morning (a profit is a profit) and as the ZEW risk event seemed quite important I felt safer to be flat at that time. On such a strong print, I tought it would make sense to try the long side.
Luckily enough I used a tight risk management on this long position since it is actually not my preferred direction and got stopped at 1.3900 for a 35 pips loss.
Now what's the plan?
All the USD are on a strong foot GBPUSD; AUDUSD, USDCAD, etc..
Also since the China hike earlier all risk assets are lower, thus helping the USD as well and the S&P 500 Futures down 1%.
If the trend is right, we re gonna see more USD strenghth. I will look into my charts and check what are the best levels to reenter and short EURUSD position with a good risk/reward and revert to you asap..
Good Luck,
FX Update 10/19/2010
ZEW Numbers really good.
I suggest trying long side here at 1.3935-40 target 1.4000-10
SL will be @ 1.3900
I suggest trying long side here at 1.3935-40 target 1.4000-10
SL will be @ 1.3900
FX Comments 10/19/2010
Good morning,
After a violent spike from 1.3930 to 1.4004 around 2.30 am EURUSD is back around 1.3900.
Market seems quite nervous around this area. For the moment, I m enclined to take profit on my short for an 80 pts profit and see what the day brings us later.
After a violent spike from 1.3930 to 1.4004 around 2.30 am EURUSD is back around 1.3900.
Market seems quite nervous around this area. For the moment, I m enclined to take profit on my short for an 80 pts profit and see what the day brings us later.
Monday, October 18, 2010
10/18/2010 Update
As per my update of this morning, I got filled on my sell order and I am short @1.3980.
Since we are currently trading @ 1.3935, I am lowering my SL down to 1.4040 and I will leave an order to buy overnight 1/2 a unit @ 1.3890 and another half @1.3845.
FX Comments 10/18/2010
Good morning,
This morning the EUR is down approximatively 100 pips from where it opened in Asia.
Of note, dovish comments in italian newspaper "La Stampa" from ECB President Trichet that a majority of the ECB Governing Council is still in favour of keeping the sovereign bond purchasing program in place. Referring to the ECB’s mandate for price stability he said that raising the inflation target would be “disastrous”, and that he was also “completely against” the idea of raising inflation expectations.
This comments counter those of Mr Axel Weber, who's expected to replace Mr. Trichet at the end of his mandate, since he was in favor of a gradual exit of stimulus measures sooner than later.
S&P500 futures are also lower by 6.5 points since NY close, and it seems to me that they will take the same path lower as the EURUSD, initially targeting 1133.
Technically, in EURUSD I see strong resistance area starting @ 1.3935, but much stronger in the 1.3975-95 zone, where I will try to go short. The target on this trade will be 1.3800 and the Stop Loss will be at 1.4060.
I will post further comments as the day evolves.
Good Luck
This morning the EUR is down approximatively 100 pips from where it opened in Asia.
Of note, dovish comments in italian newspaper "La Stampa" from ECB President Trichet that a majority of the ECB Governing Council is still in favour of keeping the sovereign bond purchasing program in place. Referring to the ECB’s mandate for price stability he said that raising the inflation target would be “disastrous”, and that he was also “completely against” the idea of raising inflation expectations.
This comments counter those of Mr Axel Weber, who's expected to replace Mr. Trichet at the end of his mandate, since he was in favor of a gradual exit of stimulus measures sooner than later.
S&P500 futures are also lower by 6.5 points since NY close, and it seems to me that they will take the same path lower as the EURUSD, initially targeting 1133.
Technically, in EURUSD I see strong resistance area starting @ 1.3935, but much stronger in the 1.3975-95 zone, where I will try to go short. The target on this trade will be 1.3800 and the Stop Loss will be at 1.4060.
I will post further comments as the day evolves.
Good Luck
Sunday, October 17, 2010
FX Comments 10/17/2010
Last week was very busy and volatile, since we traded at new lows in USD vs CHF, AUD, JPY and CAD in the majors.
The market was expecting that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would give us more clues regarding QE 2.0 and thus betting on more USD selloff. This is what happened a few minutes after he started his speech, but it seems that USD bearishness was then at its peak and we had a very strong reversal by the end of the day.
The US 10y future also responded by making a selloff, thus USD rates by going up, gave some very strong support to the USD itself.
In the future, my goal in commenting the FX arena will not be to tell you what happened after the fact, you have all the newspapers and market comments for that..., but I will try to anticipate those moves by commenting what I see in the market environment (interest rates, commodities, stock indexes futures movements), as well as technical analysis.
The market was expecting that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would give us more clues regarding QE 2.0 and thus betting on more USD selloff. This is what happened a few minutes after he started his speech, but it seems that USD bearishness was then at its peak and we had a very strong reversal by the end of the day.
The US 10y future also responded by making a selloff, thus USD rates by going up, gave some very strong support to the USD itself.
In the future, my goal in commenting the FX arena will not be to tell you what happened after the fact, you have all the newspapers and market comments for that..., but I will try to anticipate those moves by commenting what I see in the market environment (interest rates, commodities, stock indexes futures movements), as well as technical analysis.
1st essay
Dear readers,
This is my first essay in the blogging world.
I hope that you will find my postings interesting and that it is going to be the beginning of many useful discussions.
Sincerely yours,
Jean-Marc
This is my first essay in the blogging world.
I hope that you will find my postings interesting and that it is going to be the beginning of many useful discussions.
Sincerely yours,
Jean-Marc
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