FX Update 11/30/2010

Price actin is going our way but since there is no follow trough on this 1.3020-25 lvl, I suggest to either put a close stop on the short position @1.3065-70, either take 20/25 points profit.

Tomorrow is another day.

Have a good evening,

FX Update 11/30/2010

The area where we stand is the 1st resistance that I can see on my charts 1.3040-50.
I think we should try to sell some EURUSD for a target 1.2950-60.
A clear break on the upside would imply  a slightly stronger correction that could drive us back up to 1.3130-50

FX Update 11/30/2010

Profit taking target @ 1.3030-40 attained on rumors that France might be downgraded by S&P.
I just bought back my shorts for the moment. I think around 1.3100 should provide resistance now.

FX Comment 11/30/2010

Good morning,

Quiet price action ovenight after a very busy day yesterday that took EURUSD down to 1.3067 after reaching 1.3350 on the Irish bailout announcement.
The market has decided to continue to attack the EURO and now Portugal and Spain credibility are the targets.
I have resistances in the 1.3115-25 area to start with with 1.3150-60 thereafter. On the downside, supports are around 1.3070-80 area before 1.3015-35.

I have gone short on the first resistance levels with a target of around 1.3030.

Have a good day,

FX Update 11/29/2010

Despite attaining new lows, EUR doesn't show any sign of strength at the moment and it still trades quite heavily.
I just sold my longs for a 10 points loss since I have the impression of trying to catch a falling knife.
I will update later if I have any interesting ideas..

FX Update 11/29/2010

Euro tested briefly 1.3300 this morning and is back on the support levels I mentioned in my morning commentary.
For those who are short, I think trying to cover is not a bad idea.
For those who would like the contrarian side, I think it s a good level to try the long side to target 100 pts on the upside. A stop loss below 1.3110-20 would be advised.

Let's see

FX Comments 11/29/2010

Good morning,

Yesterday, Eurozone finance ministers approved a €85 bn financial rescue package for Ireland, although €17.5bn of this will come from Ireland’s sovereign wealth fund and other domestic cash resources. The remaining cash is to be sourced from the EFSM (€22.5 bn), the IMF (€22.5 bn), and the EFSF and bilateral loans (€22.5 bn).The cash is to be put to several uses: €10 bn has been earmarked for an immediate recapitalization of the banks, with a further €25 bn available as a contingency. The remaining €50bn is to be used to meet the funding needs of the State.

Of important note, EU Commissioner Rehn said that holders of senior bonds in Irish banks will not suffer a ‘haircut’ as part of the rescue effort.

This news should give a temporary respite to the EURO, but it will certainly continue to trade with a heavy tone on concerns for Portugal and eventually Spain.

Since the announcement, EURUSD traded up to 1.3354 overnight and back down to 1.3182 to open in Europe around 1.3240 as I write.

In terms of levels, 1.3155-75 area should find some supports and 1.3350-75, followed by the 1.3400-20 level should be the area of resistance.

At the moment, I would be more enclined to sell a rally in the area I just mentioned, but let's see how the european FX and bond markets interpret the news.

Have a good day,

FX Update 11/23/2010

EURUSD @ 1.3425..no corrective rally so far and we broke new lows.
The move is not over and selling still favored direction but question is at which level?
It looks like previous low @ 1.3440/50 is the closest resistance but I m even doubtful we retrace back there today..

Le's see

FX Update 11/23/2010

First target reached @ 1.3495.
I bought back my EURUSD shorts and I m looking to sell on a corrective rally starting around 1.3530/40 to be fine tuned.

FX Comments 11/23/2010

Good morning,

EURUSD has been under pressure overnight on Ireland and Portugal's problems again, South and North Korea tensions not helping and thus giving a stronger USD tone.

Today I think that the USD should keep a bid tone and thus would continue to recommend being short EURUSD. For those who are not short from yesterday, I have strong resistances around 1.3590/1.3600 followed by 1.3630 and then 1.3670.
The target on this trades should be 1.3495/00 followed by1.3450 or better if we break previous lows.

I will try to update during the day depending on how busy the market is.

Good trading,

FX Update 11/22/2010

Following J-C Trichet's comments on strong USD policy , I think that the withdrawal of the buy EURUSD recommendation is appropriate and I would be inclined to recommend a short position

FX Update 11/22/2010

The price action feels like we are on stop loss hunting mode and most of it should have been done by now.

I think we should try to play the long side from here around 1.3600 with a 1.3530-40 stop to target 1.3690 and even 1.3740-50 if things clear out..

FX Comments 11/22/2011

Good afternoon,

The Irish governemnt has accepted to request financial aid from the ECB and the IMF.
EURUSD reacted positively to this and went up by 100 points by the european morning.
This news must have been anticipated so much that since the peak, EURUSD went back down to 1.3630 as I write.
This area (1.3610/30) should hold if we are on a bullish trend and retrace back up to 1.3730-60. If not, we might see EURUSD retest new lows.

Good luck,

FX Comments 11/17/2010

Good morning,
The situation regarding the bailout of Ireland is still not sorted out and since uncertainty continues to prevail   EURUSD went sharply lower as a result.
The way it has been trading has made it difficult to hold positions, but the trend is still there...
Selling rallies or keeping a short position still prevails in my humble opinion.
Firest resistances lie around 1.3510-20, followed by 1.3560-70 and on the downside, small support around 1.3460-70 followed by a stronger one @ 1.3410-30

Wish you a good trading,

FX Comments 11/16/2010

Good morning,
We are still trapped in the range. No news of interest have emerged form european negociations on Ireland debt, but we should hopefully be fixed tonight.
In terms of EURUSD, the supports and resistance levels i mentioned yesterday still apply.

I will try to update as the day evolves.

Good trading,

FX Comments 11/15/2010

Good afternoon, nothing decided yet on Ireland debt concerns and EURUSD is again trading under pressure.

Some support seems to emerge in the low 1.3600 area and might imply a little correction, may be up to 1.3680 area or 1.3730 even but I still think it would only represent a correction since the trend is down.

On the downside, lower supports are around 1.3540-60 before 1.3500-10.

FX Update 11/12/2010

German Buds and Ireland spreads lower are giving a bid tone to EURUSD and provoking a sharp correction from the lows we've seen this morning.

We should have a decent resistance around 1.3720 followed by 1.3760.

If the trend is still down, these two areas should represent very good selling opportunities..let' see if the trend is still our friend..

FX Comments 11/12/2010

Good morning,

G20 meeting agreed to let markets define currency rates and we hopefully should be able to avoid a currency war. I hope that we can trust them this time..
Risk aversion is strongly back with equity markets sharply in the red and china stocks down on average 5.5% on the day.
EURUSD has been a one way street mainly on concerns over Ireland, JPY crosses are down on the risk aversion play..Feels to me the trend is strong (and even stronger than I thought) but difficult to trade since the corrections are violent, they kill the P&L and the nerves.

Today's resistance levels are around 1.3660-70, followed by 1.3720-30 and on the downside supports are @ 1.3570-80, 1.3510 ish for the moment.

Good luck,

FX Update 11/11/2010

Sorry typo I meant support1.3655-65 and not 1.3555-65

FX Comments 11/11/2010

Good afternoon,

Today's a late message since I have had trouble with the website that hosts the blog since this morning.

I didn't have much more to say than what I said yesterday, since we haven't had much news to report.
My ideas didn't overall change neither sine I think the trend is still there.

We had was a volatile session, jumping from yesterday's lows @ 1.3670 back up until 1.3820
to return to the same 1.3670 lows. This price action has been really hard to trade since it marked a pause in the trend and squeezed many shorts.

Today EURUSD should find support around 1.355-65, followed by 1.3630 and resistance is around
1.3750-60.

FX Comments 11/10/2010

Good morning,

The EUR had another decent downmove yesterday trading down to a low of 1.3735 overnight.
US interest rates reversed quite sharply to the upside giving further support to the USD.
My scenario proved to be correct, we firstly held the support @ 1.3835 before squeezing a lot of short term traders out on the upside, to finally break the base of the triangle support @ 1.3790.

What is important to note is that not only the EUR went down vs the USD (based on the sovereign concerns), but AUD, GBP, JPY were also trading on a very soft patch.
The G20 in Seoul is starting today and we may face some higher volatility on this basis, but I still think the risk is for a stronger USD across the board.
We have had a decent correction since last Thursday's top @ 1.4282 and the 1.3730 region as held since October but I think it's a question of time before we attempt to break it.

In terms of levels, first resistance comes around 1.3830, then 1.3880 and 1.3950.
On the downside, we find 1.3740, 1.3700 and 1.3650.

Have a good day,

FX Comments 11/09/2010

Good morning,

Overnight moves again..two days in a row during asian hours has seen EURUSD being under pressure.
Interestingly enough, when reserve managers are not on the bid, it doesn't really seem that the market is very keen to buy Euros.

As I said yesterday, I think we continue lower in the pair and you will find some small support in the lows around 1.3835, followed by the base of the triangle situated around 1.3790. This break of this area would be as important as when we broke 1.4005 on the upside and would definitely signal that we have seen the highs for a while. This is my preferred scenario!!

On the upside, 1.3880-90 followed by 1.3950 should be the resistance levels.

Good luck,

FX Comments 11/08/2010

Good afternoon folks,
I am sorry, I have been quite absent from Friday afternoon post payrolls.
After being wrong, the speed of the market on Friday did't let me any chance to share my thoughts with you..

The EURO has been under serious pressure all Friday afternoon and it continued all of today, it was coming from sovereign concerns, mainly on Irish ones.
The pivot level of 1.4000 (low post FOMC) has been broken overnight. In my idea, that should be a very good sign for the bears, since it makes me think that we now have a top in place @ 1.4280-90.

Now the strategy should be more one of a sell rallies (I hope I wont be as wrong as last Friday), but that's the name of the game..identify a trend (hoping that we finally have one) and try to enter on its extremes and benefit as much as possible of the market volatility.

In terms of levels, on the topside, 1.3940-50 (quite close from here), then 1.3990-1.4000 followed by 1.4080-90 (overnight highs) and 1.4150-60.
On the downside, we have nice supports around 1.3860-65, then @ 1.3800, 1.3710 and lastly @ 1.3650 ish.

We have a G20 next Thursday and Friday, where FX will be a big topic. We will certainly hear comments regarding currency manipulation. Interestingly, this time it is the US who's getting blamed since they last easing move is considered as artificial manipulation to get a lower USD. It will take some good arguments to the US administration if they want to explain all the other world leaders that it is not the case...

Good luck, be flexible but in my mind the south is the preferred direction. Try to sell on resistance levels mentioned and not on the dip, since there is always some nasty retracements to make us doubt on a position.

FX Update 11/05/2010

I have been dead wrong on the buy the dip strategy.
Sold my long from earlier for a loss of 88 pts.
US figures surprisingly very strong I guess we have to see if this 1.4000 continues to hold.

FX Update 11/05/2010

EURUSD under pressure, as well with other EUR crosses on PIGS concerns..
what's really new? I don't know..I guess it s more a question of triggering weaker stop losses.

On this basis, I now have some supports starting at this level (1.4155) and extending down to 1.4110.

For those looking to play the buy dip strategy, I think it is a nice risk/reward trade pre-payrolls:
I just bought 1.4158 target 1.4215 and higher to 1.4260-80 if payrolls give a bad USD tone. Stop loss should be below 1.4090-1.4100

Let s see,

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FX Update 11/05/2010

I am taking this spike back up @ 1.4215 to get out of my longs at cost and will reassess later.

FX Comments 11/05/2010

Good morning,

This morning will certainly be a range play until we have US unemployment later this afternoon,

EURUSD is trading around 1.4188 as I write and has been under pressure overnight after trading up to 1.4249, thus missing the take profit on my longs @ 1.4260.

Ideally 1.4170-80 should hold for a retest of 1.4260 pre payrolls. The only thing I don't like is the market must be quite long from yesterday's huge buying all the way up from 1.4120 in Europe until 1.4280 during US hours.

Let's see how's the appetite this morning.

Have a good day,

FX Update 11/04/10

This one being the real last update for today..

Looking at price action and the trend being your friend until it ends..
I just went long here around 1.4215 targeting 1.4260 and 1.4285-95.

Stop loss should be below 1.4160-70.

Have a nice evening,

FX Update 11/04/10

Good evening and last update of the day,

EURUSD close to the tp zone. It s so slow and as it was a counter trend trade I m enclined to buy my short back here @ 1.4216 for roughly a total of 54 pips.

Resistance for tonight will be around 1.4260 , followed by 1.4285-95.
Supports will lie around 1.4180-1.4200 and further away around 1.4130.

Have a nice evening,

FX Update 11/04/10

Sorry to bother you with many updates, but this market is really nervous.
I resinstated my short position @ 1.4240 targeting this 1.4180-1.4200.

FX Update 11/04/10

EURUSD seems a tad supported at this 1.4250 level. If it holds, we might retry the upside around previous highs if not slightly better.
I am covering my short here to resell later around 1.4280-90.

FX Update 11/04/10

Just trying the short side here @ 1.4275-85 as a counter trend trade.
The play is to look for 1.4180-1.4200 to be fine tuned, while having a stop loss above 1.4320

FX Comments 11/04/2010

Good morning,
Market seems to have digested the FOMC outcome by now..
Following the announcement EURUSD went up 150 pips roughly down to 1.4000 before closing around 1.4125.
This morning everybody is selling USD, we just reached 1.4245 as I write.
The announcement was quite in line with expectations, but the duration was 8 months instead of 6 expected.
So what now? While I dont think it is really wise to counter the trend, US rates are trading lower and as a result so is the USD.
It seems that 1.4000 is going to be the monster pivot everybody will look at to signal a change in trend and while it s holding I guess buying dips might continue to be the topic. The market will certainly target 1.4370-80 in the first attempt. Very short term I think we are a bit overdone and I think we might retrace to 1.4160 before targetting higher.
Don't forget we have BOE and ECB meetings today and Unemployment in the US tomorrow, so it will remain volatile.

Good luck,

FX Comments 11/03/2010

Good morning,

While counting is continuing in the US mid-term elections, the current projections suggest a Republican victory in the House of Representatives, while Democrats might keep majority in the Senate. This outcome may lend the USD some support since it could act as a curb on fiscal spending.

Part of that, not much has happened the ranges have been respected and it will take the long awaited FOMC to announce their stimulus program to eventually finally define a trend.

I think until then it will be much safer to close speculative positions and stay on the sidelines, except for those wanting to trade intraday.

No real changes on the technical levels, still more of the same 1.4075-85 should act as strong resistance on the EURUSD topside and a first support is seen around 1.3975-90.

If we move out of this ranges, I will update with farther levels.

Have a good day,

FX Update 11/02/2010

Most of the stops on the upside must have been done and EURUSD still trades fairly bid.
However, the resistance levels of 1.4035-45 have for the time been respected and should they fail to contain
the upmove some new levels come into play @ 1.4065-75.
I ll continue to respect the idea that until we got FOMC, we shouldn't really overcome 1.4100 and will stick to my sell rally strategy.

FX Update 11/02/2010

Some short term support here @ 1.3950. I m keen to take a quick 40 pips profit here
and resell around the same resistance levels than earlier.

FX Update 11/02/2010

EURUSD is trading higher and the move looks quite impulsive. There is some rumors of stop losses above 1.4000-15 and the market might try to take them out..
That being said, I have some strong resistance around this 1.3990-95 levels and I think it would be wise to try to sell half a unit close to the resistance area and may be another half unit around the stops I mentioned.
I would set a stop loss level above 1.4100 for the deep pockets or around 1.4060-70.

The target on this trade would be around 1.3850 to be fine tuned.

FX Comments 11/02/2010

Good morning,

Quite a surprise overnight with Australia raising rates by 0.25% to 4.75% against market expectations.
As a result AUDUSD spiked by 100 points reaching a high of 0.9995.
EURUSD has been following the move and as I write is currently trading around 1.3940.
Yesterdays US stronger manufacturing data lent some support to the USD, since they might imply stronger GDP growth (and may be a softer QE).

Now we all know this week will be extremely busy and should be quite determinant to what the FED will do next. Firstly, tonight we will know the US mid-term elections outcome then tomorrow's FOMC should be finally explicit in regard to quantitative easing measures.

In the meantime, it is very difficult to have a clear idea of the next trend. We have been trading in a range and in terms of technicals we see a lot of triangle patterns looking to be broken soon.
My first contrarian take would be to think that the market expects too much easing and the surprise would be a higher USD, but since the FED can announce something quite big,  I would not bet the ranch against it.

In terms of EURUSD levels, I have quite a big resistance around 1.3985-95, followed by 1.4035-45. On the downside, supports are @ 1.3870-80 followed by 1.3800.

I have no strong idea that could give a nice risk/reward trade as of yet, but will update as the day evolves.

Good trading,